NBA 2016-17 Offseason: 11% Mindset

Health insurance rip off lying FDA big bankers buying
Fake computer crashes dining
Cloning while they're multiplying
Fashion shoots with Beck and Hanson
Courtney Love, and Marilyn Manson
You're all fakes
Run to your mansions
Come around
We'll kick your ass in

Postby trouble » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:55 pm

Gnarls wrote:Durant ran the Will McAvoy account


this made me hoot
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Postby trouble » Tue Sep 19, 2017 10:57 pm

i don't know if i hate durant. he just seems like kind of a dork. i've kind of accepted golden states newfound tyranny over the nba. especially if the alternatives are cavs and celtics.
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Postby WAC » Tue Sep 19, 2017 11:03 pm

Durant owns
He said ALOT of shit last night. And most of it WASN'T how he supported a fascist.
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Postby Milquetoaster Strudels » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:11 am

delgriffith wrote:Nurk's dad is going to eat Lavar Ball during the WCF in 2019.

Damn I didn't know the Blazers traded him to the Wolves
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Postby delgriffith » Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:18 am

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Postby mcwop23 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:39 am

i'll do it after lunch if no one else does
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Postby Eyeball Kid » Wed Sep 20, 2017 11:59 am

WAC wrote:
Lucky wrote:
famnexdo wrote:why did bogut go to the lakers over the celtics?

must've been their respective fan bases...


he really seems like someone celtics fans would take to though :P


We're not too fond of the alt-right here

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Postby lordofdiapers » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:10 pm

Lucky with the low hanging fruit evem though his country pretty much invented oppression and racism
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Postby gallits » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:32 pm

Lucky is Welsh not English
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Postby lordofdiapers » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:35 pm

Lol Im a moron
Stuntman wrote:Does anyone remember Late Night Cheeseburger? That was my jam. Tasted like BO.
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Postby gallits » Wed Sep 20, 2017 12:36 pm

He is still British tho
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Postby Beautiful Jugdish » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:20 pm

The welsh invented gorditas
I've hit rock bottom!
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Postby mcwop23 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:33 pm

i'm getting an error page everytime i try to post that insider article
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Postby Ankh » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:34 pm

not a true insider huh
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Postby mcwop23 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:35 pm





gonna post it in intervals


Code: Select all
How does Luka Doncic's prodigious production at age 18 project the 2018 prospect will perform in the NBA?
As Insider's Mike Schmitz detailed earlier this week, Doncic's role in helping lead Slovenia to an unlikely gold medal in this month's Eurobasket championships further added to his résumé as the most accomplished prospect in next year's draft. Even before that, however, Doncic's performance for Real Madrid in Euroleague and Spanish ACB play marked him as an elite prospect

Is he the best European prospect ever? And should he be considered the early leader for the No. 1 pick over prospects such as Michael Porter Jr. and Marvin Bagley III? Let's take a look.







How Doncic projects to the NBA


Kevin Pelton: During 2016-17, when he turned 18 midway through the season, my translations of ACB statistics to their NBA equivalent suggest Doncic played at nearly an average NBA level. His player win percentage (the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player metric, akin to PER) was .488 -- not far from the average of .500.



Doncic was even better against the stiff competition in Euroleague play, where his translated .595 player win percentage was the best among any regular. New LA Clippers guard and international veteran Milos Teodosic ranked second among that group at .551.

Factoring in both those performances, plus Doncic's more limited minutes in previous seasons, his translated statistics suggest Doncic would already be an excellent playmaker for a wing as well as a strong rebounder for a shooting guard. However, Doncic probably would struggle to score efficiently because of his middling 3-point shooting; he shot just 33.3 percent from the shorter FIBA 3-point line across all competitions.

Overall, my translations show Doncic's 2016-17 level of play as relatively similar to Charlotte Hornets reserve Jeremy Lamb. (Because of his combination of skills, Doncic's performance isn't all that similar to any current NBA player.) That doesn't sound very impressive until you consider that Doncic is nearly seven years younger than Lamb.

How well do those translated statistics compare to the scouting consensus on Doncic's current level of play?

Jonathan Givony: The scouting consensus is still coming together at this stage for Doncic, and I expect that to be an ongoing process all season long leading up to draft night. Doncic is a unique prospect, pretty much unprecedented, as Schmitz laid out on Monday, with how productive he has been at such an incredibly young age.

There are different schools of thought from NBA executives about the extent of Doncic's long-term upside, but I haven't heard too many people question his jump shot as one of the reasons for that. While it's true he has hit only 33 percent of his career 392 3-point attempts, Doncic has a beautiful stroke both with his feet set and off the dribble, along with deep range, and I believe that he will find a way to quicken his release and get his shot off more effectively at his size as his career moves along. Doncic is a big time shot-maker already, which is what you hope to see from a guy his age at this level of competition. The efficiency will come in time, I believe.

The fact that just about half of Doncic's field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc for his career, and his near-80 percent free throw shooting, leaves a lot of room for optimism when combined with his excellent mechanics and touch. If anything, Doncic's overconfidence in his jump shot is what has led to his pedestrian 3-point percentages. Doncic is such a good shooter, he feels he can pull up for Stephen Curry-type 3s at any moment, something defenses are often happy to concede, instead of having him probe with his dribble. I think as Doncic's career moves forward, he will find a better balance for when to take these types of shots, and how to get them off more cleanly.

Regarding the rebounding and playmaking, there's no question it tells a significant story. Doncic's career 9.3 rebounds per 40 minutes is absolutely elite for a guy who sees most of his minutes at either guard spot. While he's not incredibly long relative to his height, nor is he overwhelmingly explosive, Doncic's feel for the game allows him to anticipate the ball coming off the rim, and his strong frame, and impressive toughness helps do the rest. That's one of the things scouts love the most about Doncic -- his versatility, which should allow him to play anywhere from 1-4 in the NBA, and gives coaches great flexibility with lineup configurations.

As you touched on, and we all saw at Eurobasket, Doncic is an elite passer who is at his best with the ball in his hands. He has no problem bringing the ball up the court, getting a team into its offense, and is one of the most advanced pick-and-roll players you'll ever see relative to his age. Hopefully, whoever drafts Doncic does so with the intention of playing him on the ball as much as possible, even though there are some challenges he'll have to overcome to do so full time in the NBA.
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Postby mcwop23 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:35 pm

Code: Select all
How Doncic compares to past European prospects


Pelton: One question worth exploring with Doncic is whether he's the best prospect ever from Europe. If he had been eligible for the 2017 draft, he would have had the highest WARP projection on record for a European prospect. I have data on them back through 2006, when Andrea Bargnani was drafted No. 1 overall, and here's that list.





Top European prospects by projected WARP


Name

Year

Pick

Age

Win%

WARP


Luka Doncic 2018 - 18.1 .537 5.2
Ricky Rubio 2009 5 18.5 .480 3.7
Dragan Bender 2016 4 18.4 .467 3.4
Clint Capela 2014 25 19.9 .497 3.4
Jusuf Nurkic 2014 16 19.7 .490 3.3
Kristaps Porzingis 2015 4 19.7 .487 3.2
Nikola Jokic 2014 41 19.2 .468 3.1
Danilo Gallinari 2008 6 19.7 .473 2.9
Nikola Mirotic 2011 23 20.2 .482 2.9
Rudy Fernandez 2007 24 22.0 .521 2.9
Andrea Bargnani 2006 1 20.5 .485 2.8

Since 2006


Adding a year of development to Doncic's translated statistics to project how he'd do in the NBA next season gives him the best projected player win percentage of any European prospect for whom I have data, despite the fact that he's also younger than any of these prospects at the time they were drafted. As a result, while we don't have data for earlier prospects like Dirk Nowitzki, I'm comfortable saying Doncic is the best European prospect ever. His main competition for that title is Ricky Rubio, who was even more effective than Doncic in the ACB at younger ages but never really developed beyond that point.

Would you agree that Doncic is the best European prospect we've seen? And what does it mean that besides him and Rubio, the top players on the list are almost exclusively big men?

Givony: I do agree that Doncic is the best European prospect we've seen, at least in terms of productivity and what he has accomplished to this stage of his career. There simply never has been anyone like him as far as I know. He's certainly the best one I've seen since I started scouting the NBA draft in 2004. I was out in Spain a few times watching Rubio through the years, and I believe what Doncic has done in FIBA, Euroleague and ACB play already far exceeds what Rubio accomplished at the same age. It was fascinating for me to see both of them on the court at the same time in the Eurobasket semifinals last week, considering the amount of hype they shared as Euro phenoms, and I thought Doncic totally outplayed him, even though he was 8½ years younger than him.

I never saw Nowitzki when he was in the draft, but one guy I did study extensively (on two separate trips to Europe), and who might end up being one of the best European players ever, was Giannis Antetokounmpo. Giannis was almost the same age as Doncic is now back when we first scouted him, and it's incredible to compare the differences in the level of competition they are at and their level of polish. I distinctly remember NBA scouts telling me they would never consider drafting Giannis because he wasn't able to dominate even at an incredibly poor level of competition like the Greek 2nd division (which is almost a semi-pro league in terms of salaries and conditions), and to contrast that with Doncic nearly averaging a triple-double (15.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 8.4 assists) on a per-40 basis in the Euroleague as a 17/18-year old is simply astounding.

Doncic obviously doesn't have anywhere near the same physical tools as Giannis, but I really don't think there's a single player in this draft class (or 2017 for that matter) who could step on the court and make the type of impact he has in FIBA, Euroleague or ACB play at that age. Now that we've been able to see him do it against legitimate NBA players in their prime, like Kristaps Porzingis, Marc Gasol, Evan Fournier, Pau Gasol, Rubio and others, it really eliminates a lot of the "mystery" involved in translating his production from Europe to the NBA.

Regarding your question about why most of the top projected Europeans according to WARP are bigs, I think it's the same answer as to why the best European players in the NBA are mostly bigs. It's very hard to make the NBA from outside the U.S. without being really tall (and actually really skilled). I did a quick search through my database for the most productive players born outside of North America last year according to PER, and found that among the top 18, only one of them (Eurobasket MVP and Doncic's teammate/mentor Goran Dragic) is under 6-9.
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Postby mcwop23 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:36 pm

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International Talent Trending Toward Bigs


PLAYER

NATIONALITY

HT

MPG

PER

EWA


Nikola Jokic Serbia 6'11 27.9 26.1 15.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo Greece 6'11 35.9 25.7 22.8
Joel Embiid Cameroon 7'2 25.4 24 5.1
Enes Kanter Turkey 6'11 20.5 23.4 9.9
Rudy Gobert France 7'2 33.2 23 18.1
Clint Capela Switzerland 6'11 24.2 21.4 9.6
Jusuf Nurkic Bosnia 6'11 28.6 20.8 3
Marc Gasol Spain 7'1 34.6 20.1 12.7
Goran Dragic Slovenia 6'4 33.7 19.8 11
Jonas Valanciunas Lithuania 6'11 25.5 19.7 10.2
Pau Gasol Spain 7'2 24.9 19.3 8.5
Nene Hilario Brazil 6'10 17.9 19.2 5.6
Nikola Vucevic Montenegro 7'2 28.8 19.1 8.9
Wily Hernangomez Spain 6'11 18.4 18.9 5.3
Kristaps Porzingis Latvia 7'3 32.8 17.5 7.2
Danilo Gallinari Italy 6'9 33.9 17.4 7
Serge Ibaka Congo 6'10 30.5 17.4 5.6
Dirk Nowitzki Germany 6'11 26.4 16.9 4.3


It's actually pretty ridiculous to me how many starting NBA frontcourt players these days were born outside of the U.S. It seems to be so much more rare to make it as a guard or a wing than as a forward or big, which is going to make for some interesting conversations come draft time regarding Doncic.

Will NBA teams look at him as more of a guard, which offensively there's no question he's best suited for, or as a wing -- where he might be better equipped defensively? That probably doesn't mean as much in today's NBA, but fit is important, and you'll want to put him in the right role and surround him with the right type of guys to maximize his potential.


 
NBA teams have historically been more comfortable scouting top college prospects, such as Michael Porter.


How Doncic compares to other No. 1 candidates

Givony: Kevin, when we are talking about a potential No. 1 pick like Doncic, does it make sense for NBA teams to think about how many other non-North American wing players like him went No. 1? Or even the fact that it's just rare in general to take a wing No. 1? Has the NBA game evolved enough to the point that players like Doncic should be considered at the top? We're seeing that the market for big men has been severely diminished in free agency, so should teams start drafting accordingly? Will that help Doncic's stock?

Pelton: Good questions. I think the biggest question about Doncic's statistical projections is how they'll translate against NBA-caliber athleticism. Because so much more frontcourt talent has come from Europe, we've had a better idea of how big men would translate to the NBA than wings like Doncic. So I can understand some skepticism.

Setting aside that concern, I wouldn't hesitate to take a wing No. 1, particularly one as comfortable with the ball in his hands as Doncic. Including Antetokounmpo, four of the top 11 players in wins based on ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) last season were wings, so it's clear that the best wings can have as much impact as the best big men or point guards.

We'll know a lot more about the other candidates for the No. 1 pick once they've set foot on the floor in college, but it's going to be difficult for DeAndre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III and Michael Porter Jr. to match Doncic's statistical projection. Only one player in my college database ever has. Here's how Doncic's 2018 projection compares to the top prospects since 2005:
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Postby mcwop23 » Wed Sep 20, 2017 1:36 pm

Code: Select all

How Doncic Compares To Earlier Prospects


Name

Year

Pick

Age

Win%

WARP


Anthony Davis 2012 1 19.1 .570 5.5
Luka Doncic 2018 - 18.1 .537 5.2
Kenneth Faried 2011 22 21.4 .604 5.1
DeJuan Blair 2009 37 20.0 .569 5.0
Kevin Love 2008 5 19.6 .543 4.6
James Harden 2009 3 19.7 .528 4.2
Kyrie Irving 2011 1 19.1 .514 4.2
Blake Griffin 2009 1 20.1 .535 4.2
DeMarcus Cousins 2010 5 19.7 .523 4.1
Stephen Curry 2009 7 21.1 .544 3.9
Kristaps Porzingis Latvia 7'3 32.8 17.5 7.2
Danilo Gallinari Italy 6'9 33.9 17.4 7
Serge Ibaka Congo 6'10 30.5 17.4 5.6
Dirk Nowitzki Germany 6'11 26.4 16.9 4.3


Outside of the undersized big men (Blair and Faried, both drafted lower), a WARP projection better than 4.0 has generally been a guarantee of stardom. So should Doncic start the year No. 1 on teams' boards? And what must the college prospects show as freshmen to match what Doncic has already done?

Givony: Doncic should start the year at No. 1 on our board, that much is clear. I think he proved and "earned" that over the course of the Eurobasket, after a somewhat disappointing Euroleague Final Four in May. As far as the league consensus, every team will see it different I'm sure. A few of them actually might not have scouted him much at all still, certainly not if we're talking about the highest level decision-makers in their organization.

I don't think all that many NBA general managers have scouted Michael Porter, DeAndre Ayton or Mohamad Bamba enough to be able to comfortably say yet who they would definitively take in June. I can say with a high degree of confidence that zero NBA GMs or high-level executives have ever watched Marvin Bagley play in person, since he simply hasn't played in any events that they were allowed to scout due to his late decision to skip his senior year of high school. So I do believe that things are very much wide open at this stage.

In that regard, the draft is still a bit of a blank slate for most NBA teams, but they will make up ground very quickly starting in early October when NCAA practices officially begin, followed by the pro days, the big preseason tournaments in November, the conference schedule and then the long pre-draft process that will have a huge say in how things turn out. And that's where international prospects are at somewhat of a disadvantage.

Looking at the list I posted above of the 18 most productive international players in the NBA, what's the common thread? Pretty much every single one of them was picked too low in their individual draft. Some 20, 30 or 40 spots too low. With as small as the world has become, and even though we have more film and information at our fingertips than ever, I still believe that international players are at a disadvantage in the NBA draft process compared with their NCAA peers.

There is simply a comfort level and a familiarity for NBA teams in scouting college players that internationals don't enjoy. They get to work them out against one another in June. They can interview them and have them conduct personality assessments. There are no buyouts. It's not as complicated to get their medical information. The background intel is cleaner and more consistent. They can go watch them practice whenever they please in-season (forget about trying to ask Real Madrid to come in and watch a practice ...). Most NBA execs will get over to Europe once or twice, and what if you happen to fall on one or two bad games? Doncic's season probably won't be over until a few days before the NBA draft. These are mostly superficial things that really shouldn't matter that much in the grand scheme of things, but they add up.

That's before we even get into the question marks about Doncic's game. Can he be a go-to scorer in the NBA? Is he the type of guy you can throw the ball to as the shot clock runs down and ask him to go get a bucket? We should get a much better answer to those questions as the season progresses. That wasn't really his role for Real Madrid last year (understandably), but with Sergio Llull suffering a torn ACL last month, they probably will ask him to become a much more dominant offensive player.

I think one of the biggest hurdles Doncic might face is since he has set the bar so incredibly high for himself already, simply maintaining his level of play from last year, with an increase in minutes, will be a challenge in its own right. Will scouts consider that a disappointment? You already hear some teams whispering that they don't know exactly the extent of where his upside lies, because he's already so physically mature, and so polished. I don't buy that personally, but he's probably going to have to show another gear to maintain his momentum, and that's a big ask considering what he already has demonstrated.

As you alluded to, it's not just going to depend on him. This is a talented draft class with some really interesting college players jockeying for the top spots. I'm not exactly sure what any of them have to show precisely, because we've seen all kinds of guys go No. 1 in the past few years. Some of them didn't have much of an impact on the win column in college, like Ben Simmons or Markelle Fultz, so it's tough for me to say that Michael Porter definitively has to lead Missouri to the NCAA tournament to go No. 1. Karl-Anthony Towns averaged 10 points for Kentucky and went No. 1. Could Mohamed Bamba or DeAndre Ayton do the same? Anthony Bennett had a terrible pre-draft process and ended up there. Kyrie Irving played only 11 college games. There isn't always much rhyme or reason to the NBA draft as we've found.

The next nine months are going to be very entertaining, and we're all looking forward to seeing how it plays out. I would recommend to fans following along to approach it with an open mind.
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Postby Gnarls » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:11 pm

It's confirmed


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Postby delgriffith » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:12 pm

:ryan:

(Also thanks mcwop!)
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Postby pissydan » Wed Sep 20, 2017 2:20 pm

As life would have it, Johnny did somebody wrong and they filed a complaint.
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Postby Marx & Engels » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:22 pm

It's cool that this article is headlined "KD and the VCs: How Kevin Durant Became a Made Man in Silicon Valley" so you're primed to unreservedly take joy in this anecdote

Take this story about the days after Durant decided to sign with the Warriors, a time when he was feeling the full brunt of the Internet’s fury about his perceived betrayal of Oklahoma. He and Kleiman were in China for a weeklong tour of the country sponsored by Nike Basketball, and the flak he was taking from people in Oklahoma City who had once professed deep affection for him was overwhelming. “To have so many people just say, ‘Fuck you,’ that really does it to you,” Durant tells me, still clearly anguished. “Because I truly had invested everything I had into the people I played for…. And for those people that I know and love and trust to turn their back on me after I was fully invested in them, it was just…more than I could take. I was upset.”

“You were fucked up in China,” Kleiman, looking up from his phone, offers from his plane seat across the aisle from Durant and me.

“That was before I met anybody from the Warriors and dove into the culture. I was basically on my own,” Durant says.

“It was like you were in between two teams.”

“I’m telling you, I was fucked up for a while!”

“We were all messed up on jet lag,” Kleiman says, turning to me, “and I was up at 6 a.m. and he calls me and says, ‘Yo, are you up?’ And I’m like, ‘Yeah, what’s up?’ And he’s like [yelling], ‘Why the fuck did you let me do this to my life?’ And I’m like, ‘Ohh shit, I’m coming over to your room.’”

“That hotel was rock bottom,” says Durant.
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Postby wario lopez » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:37 pm

oh word, i forgot mike schmitz went over to espn, should improve their draft coverage significantly
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Postby wario lopez » Wed Sep 20, 2017 3:50 pm

However, Doncic probably would struggle to score efficiently because of his middling 3-point shooting; he shot just 33.3 percent from the shorter FIBA 3-point line across all competitions.


should be noted that the FIBA 3 is already longer than the NCAA 3 as well if comparing him to stateside prospects. i'm fairly confident from watching him play and other factors such as his FT% that he will develop a consistent 3p shot during his career.
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Postby Pashmina » Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:04 pm

im a cavs fan now


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Postby the soccer return believer » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:14 am

mug wrote:Sucks that Embiid still isn't cleared for 5v5


This sounds sick as hell until you remember he's only playing against other Philadelphia 76ers :twisted:

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Postby shankly » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:50 pm

Rugged Ricky Rubio is a good look

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Postby uncledoj » Thu Sep 21, 2017 12:57 pm

I miss him so much
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Postby shankly » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:26 pm

i don't think it's hopeless for him, but it definitely isn't a great sign.

at this point, i think the sixers are just doing everything in their power to have fultz, simmons, and embiid all healthy for the start of the season; they can't start the year with another key piece banged up from a preseason/non-contact injury.
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Postby lordofdiapers » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:30 pm

Im curious to see how Simmons and Fultz play together. 7'0 point guard is out the window now, huh
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