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Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:48 am
by Julius Sumner Miller
shark week wrote:MD-06 could be interesting

state delegate Aruna Miller vs Total Wine millionaire David Trone


Goddammit, Roger Manno is also in this race and may be the most progressive candidate in all of Maryland and has gotten more endorsements than Miller and Trone combined, and Miller is dogshit, and Manno has an incredible backstory of becoming homeless as a kid when his father died.

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:49 am
by shark week
Trone is an amazing loser

he spent just under 13$mil in 2016 in losing the primary. i think he's spent more than 10$mil again for this primary

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:50 am
by shark week
Julius Sumner Miller wrote:
shark week wrote:MD-06 could be interesting

state delegate Aruna Miller vs Total Wine millionaire David Trone


Goddammit, Roger Manno is also in this race and may be the most progressive candidate in all of Maryland and has gotten more endorsements than Miller and Trone combined, and Miller is dogshit, and Manno has an incredible backstory of becoming homeless as a kid when his father died.


yah, i only framed it that way because i didn't think anyone else had a shot

hopefully i'm wrong

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:52 am
by palmer eldritch
Aruna Miller will probably win

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:52 am
by powderfinger
I voted for all of the DSA people for MoCo council but I decided to vote for George Leventhal for county exec. Marc Elrich seems like a good dude who I would love to have representing me at the state or federal level but I was persuaded by Greater Greater Washington's case against him on housing. I don't exactly have a well-developed philosophy about housing, land-use, and development as it relates to social justice, but there is something that rubs me the wrong way about the marriage of convenience between actual NIMBYs and lefties who are well-intentioned but also happen to oppose virtually all new construction projects.

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:53 am
by palmer eldritch
I crawled through twitter to try to find someone that voted for Crowley and I could not find one. lol.

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:54 am
by palmer eldritch
maybe I'd have more luck on FB

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:56 am
by delgriffith
Please don't give me hope.

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:56 am
by palmer eldritch
he does have the unions on his side pretty heavily

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:57 am
by Hal Jordan
this is a real good thread on asymmetrical civility expectations between liberal and conservative campaigns and why they exist. like, why are we are having more civility discussions after SHS was politely asked to leave a restaurant than we got after all the lock her up chants:


Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 11:58 am
by Ted Pikul
I'm gonna vote for Ned Lamont in August

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:02 pm
by delgriffith
palmer eldritch wrote:maybe I'd have more luck on FB

It's hard out there:

Image
Image
Image

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:15 pm
by Hugh
Extremely good content


Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:18 pm
by palmer eldritch
that's p much in line what needs to be happening in that district. so good!

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:28 pm
by WAC
delgriffith wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:maybe I'd have more luck on FB

It's hard out there:

Image
Image
Image


Drag his ass, Paul

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:32 pm
by Feech La Manna
How was there zero polling on Crowley-Ocasio

You would think there would be some curiosity

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:33 pm
by Julius Sumner Miller
powderfinger wrote:I voted for all of the DSA people for MoCo council but I decided to vote for George Leventhal for county exec. Marc Elrich seems like a good dude who I would love to have representing me at the state or federal level but I was persuaded by Greater Greater Washington's case against him on housing. I don't exactly have a well-developed philosophy about housing, land-use, and development as it relates to social justice, but there is something that rubs me the wrong way about the marriage of convenience between actual NIMBYs and lefties who are well-intentioned but also happen to oppose virtually all new construction projects.


I thought you lived in Arlington?

What's done is done, but you goofed, my friend. First off, GGW didn't seem to realize (or care) that "The County Council is the final authority on land use matters." (that's from the county council website).

And while they are right that Elrich doesn't have the vision of the world that they do, even if you are more on the pro-development end of the left-wing spectrum like me, Elrich is pretty much better in every possible way than Leventhal is, even on many issues that GGW would seem to care about.

He's literally the only candidate who supports rent control, for instance. He's much better on transit. He's the only candidate who would even entertain the idea of public housing, though I don't think he's proposed it. And of course on the myriad of other issues he's pretty left wing, whereas Leventhal is milquetoast, which is why Elrich has gotten almost every single progressive group's endorsement, whereas Leventhal has none.

Elrich is not perfect. He mainly sucks on Amazon, is kind of aloof, and yeah, allies with NIMBYs a lot. But I hope like hell he wins because otherwise we're going to have David Blair as our county executive.

Re: Elections 2018: primary day in NY, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC run

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:33 pm
by mcwop23
538 debates the abolish ice stance

initially they support dem leadership being shitty about it but nasty nate said he needs to do more research

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:37 pm
by palmer eldritch
Feech La Manna wrote:How was there zero polling on Crowley-Ocasio

You would think there would be some curiosity


probably a real pain in the ass district to poll

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:40 pm
by Hugh
Do Jealous or Baker have a chance in hell against Hogan?

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:42 pm
by shark week
Hugh wrote:Do Jealous or Baker have a chance in hell against Hogan?


in a blue wave with a state where Dems outnumber Repubs 2 to 1 there's always gonna be a chance

but there seems to be limited excitement from the state party and the media has been covering it as if Hogan's reelection is a done deal

Hogan is definitely a strong favorite and has a huge warchest. i wouldn't bet against him

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:45 pm
by Hugh
shark week wrote:
Hugh wrote:Do Jealous or Baker have a chance in hell against Hogan?


in a blue wave with a state where Dems outnumber Repubs 2 to 1 there's always gonna be a chance

but there seems to be limited excitement from the state party and the media has been covering it as if Hogan's reelection is a done deal

Hogan is definitely a strong favorite and has a huge warchest. i wouldn't bet against him


Pretty insane his approval rating is in the 60's as of April.

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:49 pm
by palmer eldritch
mostly the ratings folks have the MD race at Lean R which seems reasonable. Hogan is popular but not invicibly so, it's a difficult environment. Baker and Scott are the hopeless seeming blue state races

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:49 pm
by shark week
everyone is buying into the "govern from the center/he hasn't done anything wrong/reasonable check&balance on Dems in the state legislature" narrative that Hogan has built up through positive media coverage and the fact that this state, while very Blue, has a huge moderate streak running through it

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 12:52 pm
by shark week
also, Hogan has been dealing with skin cancer and he fought off non-Hogdkins lymphoma while in office which engendered a lot of sympathy

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 1:02 pm
by clouds
voting for an nbk copycat killer's uncle today

https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/ ... af1f953c14

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:49 pm
by Buzz Fledderjohn

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:50 pm
by palmer eldritch
good quality telephone poll there.

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:53 pm
by palmer eldritch
I guess they leaked early cause those links died

Re: Elections 2018: primary day NY, MD, CO, OK, UT; MS/SC ru

PostPosted: Tue Jun 26, 2018 3:59 pm
by Buzz Fledderjohn
i won't feel any sort of confidence in bill nelson winning until the results are tallied