Can we admit that Obama has a really big stick?

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Postby Jeremy » Sat Mar 24, 2012 2:56 pm

Yeah leaving Romney as the guy who after six years of running for president is worse at campaigning than Rick Santorum probably helps Obama more than engaging with him directly would.
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Postby Amblin » Sat Mar 24, 2012 3:38 pm

The Dirty Turtle wrote:that would have even allowed them to address romneys bullshit about our military shrinking because obama could just say were fighting different battles today and being successful there means looking at things differently...if our biggest threat is al qaeda why would we, trying to be responsible with the budget and not do it all, invest in destroyers instead of drones
oh and by the way, weve killed basically everyone in al-qaeda and their reputation in the muslim world is ruined


If things play out with the debates like usual where we get an economic/domestic policy debate, a "town hall" or probably social media integrated event, and a "foreign policy" debate in which Obama is just going to kill him for 90 minutes with facts and rebuttals built around this point. Romney's only strategy in this type of debate is going to really be avoiding much of the military or war related issues and focus his stronger arguments on the "threat" of Iran, North Korea and probably China.
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Postby Amblin » Sat Mar 24, 2012 3:43 pm

Further, I think the only way we lose any points on foreign policy is if Biden fucks up a response in the VP debate. I think Obama exudes confidence on these issues and can articulate his policies and outlook with a lot of authority based on his success. Biden does have that confidence to an extent, I just think speaking on behalf of the President always creates some opportunity to screw up the message, particular when this Vice President is the one delivering that message.
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Postby mites » Sat Mar 24, 2012 4:00 pm

yea but biden is more personable and charming and no one fucking knows anything about the world anyway and like no one really votes on the basis of foreign policy
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Postby Amblin » Sat Mar 24, 2012 4:08 pm

mites wrote:yea but biden is more personable and charming and no one fucking knows anything about the world anyway and like no one really votes on the basis of foreign policy

First off, President Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 based on foreign policy.

Second, Obama is running for re-election, which means that making the case to keep him in office has to be based primarily on his accomplishments. Clearly the economy is still likely to be the main deciding factor for many voters and he has a whole list of things he can say he did that put us back on a path of growth. But he can really seal the deal by reminding voters of the successes he had with ending the War, wiping out al-Qaeda, getting bin Laden etc. He has a pretty good approval rating when it comes to issues already, so he should probably take advantage of it. It is going to be a big part of this campaign.

People don't have to pay much attention to agree with the War being over in Iraq, Afghanistan drawing down, dead terrorists and whatever sort of progress with Iran the administration can sell to the public by October. Most ignore the details, but all of these issues are pretty familiar to many voters in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Iowa.
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Postby Durham » Sun Mar 25, 2012 1:11 am

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Postby macseries » Sun Mar 25, 2012 1:52 am

Amblin wrote:
mites wrote:yea but biden is more personable and charming and no one fucking knows anything about the world anyway and like no one really votes on the basis of foreign policy

First off, President Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 based on foreign policy.

Second, Obama is running for re-election, which means that making the case to keep him in office has to be based primarily on his accomplishments. Clearly the economy is still likely to be the main deciding factor for many voters and he has a whole list of things he can say he did that put us back on a path of growth. But he can really seal the deal by reminding voters of the successes he had with ending the War, wiping out al-Qaeda, getting bin Laden etc. He has a pretty good approval rating when it comes to issues already, so he should probably take advantage of it. It is going to be a big part of this campaign.

People don't have to pay much attention to agree with the War being over in Iraq, Afghanistan drawing down, dead terrorists and whatever sort of progress with Iran the administration can sell to the public by October. Most ignore the details, but all of these issues are pretty familiar to many voters in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and Iowa.


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Postby mites » Sun Mar 25, 2012 4:11 am

Amblin wrote:
mites wrote:yea but biden is more personable and charming and no one fucking knows anything about the world anyway and like no one really votes on the basis of foreign policy

First off, President Bush beat John Kerry in 2004 based on foreign policy.

naw

also incumbents have pretty big advantages unless the economy sucks but thankfully all of the republicans are insane so it would probably really have to suck
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Postby Thrills » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:03 am

:awful:
Last edited by Thrills on Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jarsilver » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:28 am

the one thing that really irks me about that rove op-ed was his claim that stagflation was worse than the 08 recession. there was no recession during the carter administration.
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Postby arushofwings » Sun Mar 25, 2012 9:33 am

he knows what he's doing
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Postby Ted Pikul » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:19 am

http://pickleoffact.tumblr.com

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Postby Amblin » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:04 pm

mites, go here: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html scroll down to MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

Combine the percentages of "Iraq" and "Terrorism."

Foreign policy was the biggest issue on voters' minds in 2004.

I do agree about incumbent advantage.
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Postby husbands » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:10 pm

I do some work on theories of public opinion, and I really am skeptical that you can say any one issue was the 'biggest' in voters' minds. but foreign policy is definitely an important consideration at times.
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Postby Amblin » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:12 pm

Well lets just agree that voters don't completely ignore it like what was originally claimed.
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Postby Zwischenzug » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:28 pm

Yeah the 04 and 06 (and to some extent 08) campaigns were entirely about foreign policy. But, I think it may be better to use the term "national security" when talking about the Bush II reelection.
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Postby Amblin » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:34 pm



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Postby Zwischenzug » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:41 pm

"Safer, Stronger" and "Whatever It Takes" are probably the best Bush ads. It is also fitting how much the Bush ads copied a lot of the ethos of the Reagan campaign. "Safer, Stronger" seems like it is cut right from "Prouder, Stronger, Better (Morning In America)" and "Wolves" is exactly the same as "Bear."
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Postby delgriffith » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:43 pm

Zwischenzug wrote:"Wolves" is exactly the same as "Bear."


Yeah although way more on the nose. It's like they watched "Bear" and thought "let's do that... but really make sure they get it"
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Postby Amblin » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:49 pm

Safer, Stronger is really good



I picked the two above because they were attack ads.
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Postby husbands » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:53 pm

last semester I was TAing media politics, and teaching kids born in 1992 about all these ads was so fun. people should check out the living room candidate MoMI site: http://www.livingroomcandidate.org/

also I really think wolves makes a clearer point than bear
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Postby lynn minmei » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:55 pm

wow, thanks for that MoMI link
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Postby Zwischenzug » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:58 pm

When it comes to presidential politics I sometimes just subscribe to the bugs bunny/daffy duck theory:
(http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2008/03/bugs_bunny_vs_daffy_duck.html)

If only because it is so convenient. Just watching the Bush ads you realize that Kerry (and really the party between Clinton and Obama) had no chance with middle america.
Last edited by Zwischenzug on Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby Zwischenzug » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:59 pm

Yeah, living room candidate is the best source for finding ads.
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Postby husbands » Sun Mar 25, 2012 12:59 pm

the laughter ad from 1968 is the best. it's the political ad version of the replacements video for bastards of young
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Postby Sharmoota » Sun Mar 25, 2012 8:25 pm

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Postby AdamThomas » Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:14 pm

I am so sick of "When you search for _____ on google, you tens of millions of results" to support the validity of something. Thought we were well over that.
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Postby This Guy » Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:48 pm

From Chris Matthews today
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Postby carlperkins » Sun Mar 25, 2012 10:53 pm

The picture of Obama petting the cat is really doing it for me.
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Postby Sharmoota » Sun Mar 25, 2012 11:56 pm

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