General Stock Talk Thread

[grammatron]

Do you think the markets are reacting to the news that Nathan thinks Obama is a sucky president?

[Totally]

Every once in a while, he just pulls that string...

[mikey]

-24%

maybe i should buy some stock

[Totally]

So when you have massive international currency defenses going on 4 out of 5 days and LIBOR/TED spreads have widened by like 50/60bps in the same timeframe I thiiiiiink you have a serious problem.

[wolfie]

none of this matters go take a walk it's nice out

[gentleman]

we should have a little bounce to 1095-1120 on the spx before going much lower. ultra bearishness needs to be worked off first.

[Gehrig Industries]

guys i now have two pounds of gold

[coop]

guys i now have two pounds of gold

you bought high, sucker

[Gehrig Industries]

ive paid less than 1k/oz

[coop]

we should have a little bounce to 1095-1120 on the spx before going much lower. ultra bearishness needs to be worked off first.

i'm curious what your bearish view is based on, besides stuff like falling home prices

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Falling-home-prices-stir-apf-2074462944.html?x=0

[haywood]

ive paid less than 1k/oz

you just know some scientists somewhere are waiting until the price hits $2k before they unleash their artificial gold and ruin the market for shiny things.

[coop]

[gentleman]

we should have a little bounce to 1095-1120 on the spx before going much lower. ultra bearishness needs to be worked off first.

i'm curious what your bearish view is based on, besides stuff like falling home prices

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Falling-home-prices-stir-apf-2074462944.html?x=0

well, there's several ways to look at markets:

technical:
the move off the lows in March 2009 was a straight bear market rally. on a weekly chart, we recovered to the 200 week moving average, a great long time resistance line as well as the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level:



the market since last fall was characterized by poor internals, low volume, poor advance/decline figures...it was like only the idiots were buying at the top...and they were.

quantitative:
ive talked about contrarian indicators in april (pretty much calling the top). put/call ratio was clocking in readings in the .40s and .50s...ultra ultra bullish readings that are perfect opportunities to sell longs and go short aggressively. the put/call ratio is filled with market maker hedges so i look at the isee readings for a more pure bullish/bearish indicator. i got a reading in april of 350...the highest reading of bullishness on equities ever recorded...higher than at the highs in 2007.

fundamental:
the market is going to do what its going to do but if you need a fundamental reason to go short, look at year over year earnings comparisons. in 2008, the world came to an end. analysts expecting $1.00/share in EPS from a company like INTC got hosed. they drop their estimates by 50%, INTC comes out with $0.60/share in EPS and everyone is happy that the company beat estimates by 20% or some crap like that. then in 2009, we stabilize and INTC comes out with $0.90/share...growth of 50%!!! woohoo.

in 2010, INTC will be happy to make $1.00/share in EPS...growth is slowing significantly. yet the stock rallied 150% or whatever happened in the last year. this is a recipe for disaster. investor optimism for an earnings recovery is/was ridiculous.

also, from a fundamental standpoint, credit is massively tightened. this has only happened in one other time in our stock market's history...the great depression.

here's a good roadmap for the future:

[coop]

cool post, gentleman, appreciate it

so are you mostly in agreement w/ what roubini has been saying lately

[Ankh]

market is back dudes and IT'S NEVER GOIN DOWN!

[gentleman]

cool post, gentleman, appreciate it

so are you mostly in agreement w/ what roubini has been saying lately

roubini is a nut. any intelligent person saw 2008 coming...he just had better PR.

i dont know where the bottom is. i just know the trend has changed and now you sell into rallies and as opposed to buy the dips. when quantitative data gives me a buy signal, ill cover shorts. for now, i am in 100% cash waiting for 1110 on s&p to start my shorting again.

[grammatron]

market is back dudes and IT'S NEVER GOIN DOWN!

That's what I'm talkin' about!

[ecto]

gentleman, if you're going to short, why not just buy a ton of put options instead

[ecto]

oh also http://www.americanbankingnews.com/2010 ... ec-shares/

time to take out a few straddle options

[s/ns]

I get fun stuff like what Gentleman is posting all the time. Here's what he's saying but on steroids.

As a market maker I don't really care to predict things one way or the other -- since most times I tend to be wrong -- but stuff like this definitely does tend to make me hedge my downside.

[ecto]

yeah i think next week i might take out some 3 month puts on most of my portfolio

[gentleman]

gentleman, if you're going to short, why not just buy a ton of put options instead

it's hard enough predicting what direction stocks will go...why add timing to the equation?

[ecto]

i don't think timing is too big of an issue if you have an american put, or at least, if you get a 2 or 4 month

[gentleman]

i don't think timing is too big of an issue if you have an american put, or at least, if you get a 2 or 4 month

i was kicking myself for not buying puts in april since they were so cheap with the Vix at 15 or whatever. i just don't swing for the fences. i prefer 1000 base hits.

[Totally]

Oh shijt.

[grammatron]

It's happening again, isn't it.

[Totally]

Just some more shakeout in the bloc/EU sovs where fuckloads of emerging bets were placed. Croatia is the next growth area!!! Let's move our corporate HQ to Prague!! (actually that wouldn't have killed you, CZ and PL are loving this). Any blowout in the bloc could downdraft hugely into IE in my view; FR and obv GER are getting the bulk of the spread climbs but IE was basically a paired investment at the time.

[Totally]

#CanwejustadmitObamaisashittypresident: U.S. economy adds 431,000 jobs in May; 411,000 are temporary Census hirings

[Broncobama]

Obama to unveil annual census plan

[grammatron]

The other 20k are oil scrubbers.