well, there's several ways to look at markets:
the move off the lows in March 2009 was a straight bear market rally. on a weekly chart, we recovered to the 200 week moving average, a great long time resistance line as well as the 61.8% fibonacci retracement level:
the market since last fall was characterized by poor internals, low volume, poor advance/decline figures...it was like only the idiots were buying at the top...and they were.
ive talked about contrarian indicators in april (pretty much calling the top). put/call ratio was clocking in readings in the .40s and .50s...ultra ultra bullish readings that are perfect opportunities to sell longs and go short aggressively. the put/call ratio is filled with market maker hedges so i look at the isee readings for a more pure bullish/bearish indicator. i got a reading in april of 350...the highest reading of bullishness on equities ever recorded...higher than at the highs in 2007.
the market is going to do what its going to do but if you need a fundamental reason to go short, look at year over year earnings comparisons. in 2008, the world came to an end. analysts expecting $1.00/share in EPS from a company like INTC got hosed. they drop their estimates by 50%, INTC comes out with $0.60/share in EPS and everyone is happy that the company beat estimates by 20% or some crap like that. then in 2009, we stabilize and INTC comes out with $0.90/share...growth of 50%!!! woohoo.
in 2010, INTC will be happy to make $1.00/share in EPS...growth is slowing significantly. yet the stock rallied 150% or whatever happened in the last year. this is a recipe for disaster. investor optimism for an earnings recovery is/was ridiculous.
also, from a fundamental standpoint, credit is massively tightened. this has only happened in one other time in our stock market's history...the great depression.
here's a good roadmap for the future: