Elections 2018. any minute now we'll be all out of elections

Health insurance rip off lying FDA big bankers buying
Fake computer crashes dining
Cloning while they're multiplying
Fashion shoots with Beck and Hanson
Courtney Love, and Marilyn Manson
You're all fakes
Run to your mansions
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We'll kick your ass in

Postby shark week » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:34 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:I'm skeptical at the moment but the midterm turning into VA-17 is a nightmare to me


i'm not following

wasn't this considered a good result?
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:44 pm

it was extremely polarized along 2016 lines. basically they kicked extra ass where Clinton won and that's it. taken nationally, in the Senate map, that would be very bad. in the House, it would be a real dogfight.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Oct 12, 2018 9:49 pm

oh hey I found my posts fromlast year even with search broken

palmer eldritch wrote:Image

open district races just replayed 2016 exactly. Republican incumbents look like they outperformed Trump a bit.


palmer eldritch wrote:after staring at the numbers for a while I decided that you'd probably need a slightly better overall performance than Democrats had in the VA House to win the US House
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Postby shark week » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:50 am

palmer eldritch wrote:it was extremely polarized along 2016 lines. basically they kicked extra ass where Clinton won and that's it. taken nationally, in the Senate map, that would be very bad. in the House, it would be a real dogfight.


i guess i was caught up in the house gains and the polls that showed a pretty tight race/low expectations but resulted in Northam cruising. that graph is not promising. it's pretty disturbing that Dems haven't made a better case as a check against Trump. the healthcare messaging seems to be a good tactic but it's not clear yet if the GOP has salvaged anything with their lies about Medicare and pre-existing conditions.
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Postby shark week » Sat Oct 13, 2018 5:50 am

Ojeda is wired

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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:06 am

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Postby big zorb » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:24 am

Cool!
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Postby Feech La Manna » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:26 am

sounds like this one might come down to turnout!
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:31 am

whoever wins IA-03 wins the house
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Postby tgk » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:09 pm

We were never gonna take back the senate in 18, 2020 is when we bring it all back home
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Postby laserblast » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:17 pm

after 2016 i am skeptical of anything that isn't nasty nate's model

but i am also resigned to the dems being feckless and losing everything so, tough to say really
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:51 pm

theres still a pretty wide range of conceivable results
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:51 pm

#analysis
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Postby delgriffith » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:52 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:theres still a pretty wide range of conceivable results

One possibility that cannot be discounted: a tie.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:54 pm

a tie election night with ga-06 going to a runoff
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Postby bruceagain » Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:14 pm

delgriffith wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:theres still a pretty wide range of conceivable results

One possibility that cannot be discounted: a tie.

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Postby GonzO))) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 8:21 pm

Feech La Manna wrote:sounds like this one might come down to turnout!


Is this reply the same as when dudes say they saw ... at pitchfork or maybe we should give him a chance
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Postby Jabberwocky » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:07 pm

What should we expect overall voter turnout to be in this midterm election anyway?
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:36 pm

are you setting me up here
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Postby GonzO))) » Sat Oct 13, 2018 9:36 pm

tgk wrote:We were never gonna take back the senate in 18, 2020 is when we bring it all back home



The thought of democrats losing to any of these chuds is the most infuriating thing in the world - like it seems like democrats should win every senate seat and 350 house races and yet this election is predicted to be highly competitive and it makes me wanna die

Can’t imagine how fucked up it’s gonna be in 2020 when the GOP wins like 70 senate seats and does to the entire Midwest what they did to Kansas and trump is publicly executing democrat judges and replacing them with Richard Spencer and Charlie Kirk
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:30 am



hmm
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Postby palmer eldritch » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:32 am

D+13 generic ballot there btw
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Postby Hugh » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:35 am

Canvassed for Wexton yesterday and ran into two Obama/Trump voters. My brain melted.
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Postby big zorb » Sun Oct 14, 2018 10:59 am

palmer eldritch wrote:whoever wins IA-03 wins the house


Requested my absentee ballot this weekend 8-)
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Postby mcwop23 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:04 am

Hugh wrote:Canvassed for Wexton yesterday and ran into two Obama/Trump voters. My brain melted.


does this mean they can’t be persuaded at all?

not that i rely on these people to switch back but out of the likely people who can potentially switch i’m curious about the amount of trump regret is out there, i know a few people who are anecdotally (mostly older rich people)
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Postby Bob511 » Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:09 am

palmer eldritch wrote:

This was kind of my reservation when Cohn started positing the Kavanaugh effect. Seems like the whole ordeal was timed just about perfectly to be impossible to disentangle?
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Postby Hugh » Sun Oct 14, 2018 11:15 am

mcwop23 wrote:
Hugh wrote:Canvassed for Wexton yesterday and ran into two Obama/Trump voters. My brain melted.


does this mean they can’t be persuaded at all?

not that i rely on these people to switch back but out of the likely people who can potentially switch i’m curious about the amount of trump regret is out there, i know a few people who are anecdotally (mostly older rich people)


No, I definitely think some can be won back. The circumstances were very different in these two cases. One clearly is disgusted by Trump, but hated Hillary so much that she either voted for Trump (my guess) or didn't vote in the Presidential race at all. She also melted down when I asked her about voting for Tim Kaine, but also loved how professional Obama and his cabinet were. Super surreal. The other case was an Egyptian man that started talking about Trump’s treatment of Christians abroad and how he has made us strong again.
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Postby laserblast » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:00 pm

re: persuadable voters, i'm not going to read this whole thing but matty g is usually fine with this stuff so

https://www.vox.com/2018/7/23/17575768/swing-voters-exist
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Postby laserblast » Sun Oct 14, 2018 12:17 pm

laserblast wrote:re: persuadable voters, i'm not going to read this whole thing but matty g is usually fine with this stuff so

https://www.vox.com/2018/7/23/17575768/swing-voters-exist


ugh that's really long and at the bottom of the page

the short answer is swing voters def exist. there are more obama-trump ones than romney-clinton ones because there are just more people in the former demographic: overindexed for white, overindexed for no college education, socially conservative/racist but economically liberal, secular-ish, tend to live in the north/midwest. these are people who are pretty disenchanted by the status quo, justifiably so in the class sense but really alarmingly in the 'want to kick immigrants out of the country' sense. some of those districts went for trump too hard in 2016 to make you think dems can come back: a place like mn-8 is probably lost for the foreseeable future. but others are pretty gettable: trump is unpopular there because of health care, or his tariffs, or the tax cuts or whatever. things like abolish ICE won't play well there but you're also not going to see the candidates in those districts support it (another v impt reason to always be primarying ppl in blue seats)

romney-clinton voters are just suburbanites, as best as i can tell, which really doesn't matter in a presidential (outside of virginia) but is obviously going to be important in places like va-10. if you go canvassing anywhere you'll always find obama-trump voters but my feeling is hugh probably ran into way more daycare moms who wouldn't think for voting for trump in a million years
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Postby Hugh » Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:47 pm

laserblast wrote:
laserblast wrote:re: persuadable voters, i'm not going to read this whole thing but matty g is usually fine with this stuff so

https://www.vox.com/2018/7/23/17575768/swing-voters-exist


ugh that's really long and at the bottom of the page

the short answer is swing voters def exist. there are more obama-trump ones than romney-clinton ones because there are just more people in the former demographic: overindexed for white, overindexed for no college education, socially conservative/racist but economically liberal, secular-ish, tend to live in the north/midwest. these are people who are pretty disenchanted by the status quo, justifiably so in the class sense but really alarmingly in the 'want to kick immigrants out of the country' sense. some of those districts went for trump too hard in 2016 to make you think dems can come back: a place like mn-8 is probably lost for the foreseeable future. but others are pretty gettable: trump is unpopular there because of health care, or his tariffs, or the tax cuts or whatever. things like abolish ICE won't play well there but you're also not going to see the candidates in those districts support it (another v impt reason to always be primarying ppl in blue seats)

romney-clinton voters are just suburbanites, as best as i can tell, which really doesn't matter in a presidential (outside of virginia) but is obviously going to be important in places like va-10. if you go canvassing anywhere you'll always find obama-trump voters but my feeling is hugh probably ran into way more daycare moms who wouldn't think for voting for trump in a million years


ran into a good mix of people that were familiar with the candidate and committed and some that were checked out but are reliable dem voters. in terms of ethnic background, the neighborhood i was in was actually pretty diverse. va-10 definitely has a shit ton of soccer moms too though.
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