The 2020 Presidential Election: We Got the Dreamers Disease

Humans in space suits make monkeys nervous

Postby big zorb » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:31 am

galactagogue wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:swing voters are real and the hidden progressive vote is imaginary though


this feels like the fundamental divide in thinking ITT


it's this and leftist vs liberal approaches to solving the same problems, yeah
Woman: [Possibly smiling or laughing].
User avatar

big zorb
smiling drinker
 
Posts: 51135
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:56 am

Postby mcwop23 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:31 am

one kid turned is like what, 70% of a vote for a dem?

trying to change 1 out of 100 old people seems like a lot more work
wendy wrote:
colin meloy doesn't need to die
User avatar

mcwop23
bitchez ain't shit but pups and licks
 
Posts: 89927
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 6:56 pm
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Postby guy forget » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:31 am

How do I show the inside of my brain on a message board?
YES JACK, YES!!!!!!!
User avatar

guy forget
 
Posts: 16801
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:39 pm

Postby Bob511 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:32 am

I guess I don't doubt the literal existence of swing voters, so much as there being a good way to reliably predict what appeals to them and target that in any coherent way?
Eric Roberts wrote:Hipinion. Hipinion? Hipinion...is hip.
User avatar

Bob511
 
Posts: 10059
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 2:54 pm
Location: Dania Beach, FL

Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:34 am

I don't necessarily believe in the classic swing back-and-forth voter but in every election there is a set of persuadable voters and they matter quite a bit
User avatar

palmer eldritch
 
Posts: 54543
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:41 pm

Postby big zorb » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:34 am

guy forget wrote:There’s a real cruel irony in Sanders getting regularly dinged from people with broadly left political tendencies for not having a strong social justice platform when Warren is the one with actual bad racism in her very recent history


yeah this is kinda bonkers tbh
Woman: [Possibly smiling or laughing].
User avatar

big zorb
smiling drinker
 
Posts: 51135
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:56 am

Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:34 am

Bob511 wrote:I guess I don't doubt the literal existence of swing voters, so much as there being a good way to reliably predict what appeals to them and target that in any coherent way?


but yeah, you can't really control what they do, it's fucked up!
User avatar

palmer eldritch
 
Posts: 54543
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:41 pm

Postby galactagogue » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:34 am

palmer eldritch wrote:I don't necessarily believe in the classic swing back-and-forth voter but in every election there is a set of persuadable voters and they matter quite a bit


im thinking of a number... 1 through 239040495
Bob511 wrote:It's important to remember, though, that California has more psychologists than any other state.
User avatar

galactagogue
 
Posts: 16322
Joined: Fri May 02, 2014 12:27 pm

Postby ecto » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:35 am

i disagree with you on point 2 but

G_S wrote:the same reasons lefties don't trust her ought to make her more palatable to so-called independents.


wrongly operates under the assumption that independents/swing voters are people who hold moderate views across the board and is the exact mindset that completely whiffed last time around
I'm 15 and want to be a part of this friend now. What can I do? (self.LazerBlade)
submitted 3 minutes ago by LazerBlade_Teen
User avatar

ecto
 
Posts: 32737
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 2:53 pm

Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:37 am

I think the biggest lesson from Trump/Obama voters is that voters are more idiosyncratic than the whole left center right dynamic gives them credit for
badhat wrote:bike solve all problems
User avatar

Feech La Manna
noir as fuck
 
Posts: 103381
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 9:45 pm
Location: Snoopy and Prickly Pete

Postby Amblin » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:37 am

blurst of times wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:swing voters are real and the hidden progressive vote is imaginary though


hillary lost a lot of people who voted for obama. not just obama-trump voters, who we hear about constantly (who're more likely to support bernie!) but also people who didn't vote in 2016.

agree that bernie is the most likely to turn out these voters in a general election and that it's a good reason to support him!


the candidate doesn't fix every issue

2016 was also the first election since the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act in 2013. New voting restrictions were implemented in a number of states that had the almost-certain effect of driving down turnout among groups that tend to vote Democratic — including among black voters.


also biden is probably just as likely to turn out many of these voters
User avatar

Amblin
 
Posts: 53341
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:08 pm
Location: CA

Postby ecto » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:38 am

G_S wrote:can someone who opposes Liz bc she doesn't do mass politics and believes her supporters are putting too much stock in her personality
and also thinks this
blurst of times wrote:bernie is the most likely to turn out [swing] voters in a general election and that it's a good reason to support him!


plz explain

i think what blurst is trying to say is "bernie woulda won"
I'm 15 and want to be a part of this friend now. What can I do? (self.LazerBlade)
submitted 3 minutes ago by LazerBlade_Teen
User avatar

ecto
 
Posts: 32737
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 2:53 pm

Postby guy forget » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:40 am

big zorb wrote:
guy forget wrote:There’s a real cruel irony in Sanders getting regularly dinged from people with broadly left political tendencies for not having a strong social justice platform when Warren is the one with actual bad racism in her very recent history


yeah this is kinda bonkers tbh


I think part of it is Warren is a woman and Sanders is an old white guy so she gets the benefit of the doubt where he doesn’t. And to be frank I think NOT giving him the benefit of the doubt is fair for that reason. And I’m of a mind that representation matters on its merits and think a non male president* would be a good thing unto itself and is not something to dismiss outright. But Warren is not some paragon of SJ politics where Sanders is not, that’s not a good faith argument - both have some work to do there but EW has more.

Like, Harris and Booker were the only two who mentioned reproductive rights in the last debate, iirc. That’s nuts!

* Non Republican Category
YES JACK, YES!!!!!!!
User avatar

guy forget
 
Posts: 16801
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:39 pm

Postby guy forget » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:41 am

Feech La Manna wrote:I think the biggest lesson from Trump/Obama voters is that voters are more idiosyncratic than the whole left center right dynamic gives them credit for


Don’t tell that to KCRW
YES JACK, YES!!!!!!!
User avatar

guy forget
 
Posts: 16801
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:39 pm

Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:41 am

aruba jamaica
User avatar

palmer eldritch
 
Posts: 54543
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:41 pm

Postby ecto » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:41 am

G_S wrote:if Bernie will need these ideologically confused voters to win a general, then how does he do his mass movement to get a leftist agenda done?

why are these mutually exclusive
I'm 15 and want to be a part of this friend now. What can I do? (self.LazerBlade)
submitted 3 minutes ago by LazerBlade_Teen
User avatar

ecto
 
Posts: 32737
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 2:53 pm

Postby blurst of times » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:41 am

G_S wrote:can someone who opposes Liz bc she doesn't do mass politics and believes her supporters are putting too much stock in her personality
and also thinks this
blurst of times wrote:bernie is the most likely to turn out [swing] voters in a general election and that it's a good reason to support him!


plz explain


https://www.thedailybeast.com/bernie-sanders-out-raises-joe-biden-in-obama-trump-swing-counties

i didn't just mean swing voters though. i was also talking about people who don't usually vote (i guess they're called "hidden progressives" now?).
User avatar

blurst of times
ride.
 
Posts: 13995
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 7:06 pm

Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:44 am

I mean this is just a ~internet~boy~pundit~prediction~ but turnout in 2020 in like, PA or MI is not worth talking about. everyone is gonna vote that has any kind of vote history. persuasion will matter a lot more!
User avatar

palmer eldritch
 
Posts: 54543
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:41 pm

Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:44 am

the only thing you really need to worry about is a Viable Third Party Candidate
User avatar

palmer eldritch
 
Posts: 54543
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:41 pm

Postby mcwop23 » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:45 am

might be easier to persuade the people who don’t vote to vote if they like you (the kids)
wendy wrote:
colin meloy doesn't need to die
User avatar

mcwop23
bitchez ain't shit but pups and licks
 
Posts: 89927
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 6:56 pm
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Postby quinine » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:45 am

the cool thing about a mass movement is unlike a general election you don't need 51% of the population engaged for it to be effective

shark week wrote:i think i'd prefer to copy the Nixon/Agnew approach. if it's Bernie as VP, have him barnstorm the country and bully everyone into a youthful mass movement of working class politics. throw everything at the midterms and 2024. try to throw out a bunch of the older centrists.


I have no idea what agnew did but really feelin this idea rn
Image
User avatar

quinine
ok
 
Posts: 14971
Joined: Sat Jun 04, 2011 12:29 pm
Location: 0,0 / The Shinto Zone

Postby guy forget » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:46 am

He mostly got booted out of office for massive corruption if I remember my Perlstein right
YES JACK, YES!!!!!!!
User avatar

guy forget
 
Posts: 16801
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:39 pm

Postby Shotfrog » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:46 am

palmer eldritch wrote:the only thing you really need to worry about is a Viable Third Party Candidate


Image

"I'm sorry, did you say something?"
User avatar

Shotfrog
 
Posts: 16503
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 8:14 am
Location: Boston

Postby light rail coyote » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:47 am

tgk wrote:
guy forget wrote:
galactagogue wrote:
palmer eldritch wrote:swing voters are real and the hidden progressive vote is imaginary though


this feels like the fundamental divide in thinking ITT


What about, swing voters are real but smaller than the people who will turn out to support a further left candidate?


show your work here guy


this one is really hard to gauge in either direction because there hasn't really been a major left candidate since the last big electoral system realignment and there's not much data at the presidential level to work off of.

obama is the closest and he did see massive increases in turnout and stuff but he was also a fairly unique candidate that can't really be replicated/two elections is an awful sample size (which as an aside is why it's still funny to me when so many pundits argued that his election was a realigning election and then the obama coalition basically vanished in offyear elections)
User avatar

light rail coyote
 
Posts: 17265
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:26 pm

Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:47 am

I just had my bionic spine installed and I'm ready to tell you that Elizabeth Warren is going to destroy all the jobs
User avatar

palmer eldritch
 
Posts: 54543
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 8:41 pm

Postby surly » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:48 am

although i'm sympathetic to the thesis that bernie will turn out more new voters (in an actual election, caucuses are a different story) we really have no data on who these nonvoters are or why they don't vote, so any argument that any candidate is more electable premised on turning out perennial nonvoters kinda just feels like wishful thinking
lordofdiapers wrote:damn it Greedo will forever fuck that word for me
User avatar

surly
the insult bastard
 
Posts: 38407
Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2009 4:41 pm
Location: MD

Postby Drinky » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:48 am

guy forget wrote:I’m talkin like 5’1-5’2 here, fairly small


Good height for swings though
User avatar

Drinky
 
Posts: 2671
Joined: Wed Dec 16, 2009 11:59 am

Postby light rail coyote » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:49 am

but generally speaking, when pundits refer to swing voters, they're mostly looking at registered independents that only vote in presidential elections and independent voters tend to have consistent partisan leanings over time in the aggregate and party switching isn't some huge phenomenon among that group.
User avatar

light rail coyote
 
Posts: 17265
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:26 pm

Postby light rail coyote » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:51 am

surly wrote:although i'm sympathetic to the thesis that bernie will turn out more new voters (in an actual election, caucuses are a different story) we really have no data on who these nonvoters are or why they don't vote, so any argument that any candidate is more electable premised on turning out perennial nonvoters kinda just feels like wishful thinking


in the last primary, that was his core strength. whether or or that scales up to a general is definitely still unknown but I don't think it's worth writing off or not worth pursuing
User avatar

light rail coyote
 
Posts: 17265
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:26 pm

Postby light rail coyote » Wed Oct 23, 2019 11:51 am

trouble wrote:maybe bob iger/oprah ticket


someone was watching jackam this morning
User avatar

light rail coyote
 
Posts: 17265
Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2017 12:26 pm

PreviousNext

Return to The Hot Zone

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: 10cc, alaska, all day breakfast, Annie May, ashtrayheart, Autarch, baby gap, Bartatua, becky, black drum, blckchrry, bluegrey, Boog Powell, clouds, crisp butty, dadrocksampler, dan, Dead_Wizard, deebster, denvermax, down with homework, dr. badvibes, Dr. Munir Xochipillicueponi Quetzalkanbalam, dragon jeans, draw, elucidatory death image, Executive Producer, Eyeball Kid, Feech La Manna, fester, fosse, FourLegsGood, Fr. Blanc, fury, Google [Bot], guaranteed mediocrity, Gutslab, guy forget, hbb, hideout, HUMANIMAL, i am rich, important dentist, inkling, Intervalo, j-ol, jalapeño ranch, jefe górgory, joe, jubjub, k2_ger, Kaputt, kid8, kirito, largecrow, Legion, light rail coyote, lil bro, Link, loaf angel, Locust Valley 3, mactheo, mondrary, mothlight, Mr Spaceship, mynamerocks, naturemorte, nice pass, normal finkenstein, normal forest, Organic Croutons, palmer eldritch, peanut, Phil, Pops Freshenmeyer, Poptone, postbot, potentialgetawaydriver, powderfinger, provm, quilty, quinine, Rainbow Battle Kid, razzle, REAL BASED SLOB, Recent Digest, Render, rex, ripersnifle, Robert, Science, scrumptown, secondskin, sevenarts, shizaam, smartphone, Smiling Penner-Lite, son of chucky, soup, sympathy, techno beats, terminus, tgk, Thalidomide, three holed gugger, truncated, tsargaritaville, virile, virtuous, vivian darko, warmjets, Wilderness, winjer, xchinyellah, xxx-xxx-xxxx, Zurich and 182 guests