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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:27 pm

2019....That's all folks---

The 2020 downticket bullshit zone

2020 Senate

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2020 GOVS

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Last edited by palmer eldritch on Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:32 am, edited 31 times in total.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:27 pm

finally, a thread to talk about who is going to beat Cory Gardner
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Postby big zorb » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:28 pm

joni ernst gonna get got
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:32 pm

the LA gov race should be getting underway pretty soon, as Kennedy is going to make an announcement about whether or not he'll run on Monday. the only statewide elected Democrat in MS is running for the open gov seat. and Bevin in KY is really not the most popular dude. together with the VA state legislature, it will be a unusually active off year
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Postby shark week » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:33 pm

do gerrymander lawsuits go in this thread?

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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:33 pm

yeah definitely. I can barely keep up with the state of those things.
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Postby tgk » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:37 pm

Weird to think that we could go from having no chambers in 2016 to getting them all back in 2020. Not even that much of a stretch really.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:38 pm

I'm not sure what's happening at the moment in NC. there was an order to redraw the Congressional district lines before the election, but no one on either side of the lawsuit wanted that, so the lines are in place but they're considered harmful enough by the district court that redrawing and holding special elections before 2020 can't be ruled out (but the appeals usually take so long on these things, idk)
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Postby Ted Pikul » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:39 pm

Will Cynthia Nixon primary Schumer

edit: apparently not
Last edited by Ted Pikul on Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby tgk » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:40 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:2020 Senate

Image

looks a hell of a lot better than our 2018 map

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Postby tgk » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:41 pm

Ted Pikul wrote:Will Cynthia Nixon primary Schumer

edit: apparently not


AOC
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Postby delgriffith » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:41 pm

Cynthia will run for mayor in 2021 is my guess.

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Postby Ted Pikul » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:43 pm

tgk wrote:
Ted Pikul wrote:Will Cynthia Nixon primary Schumer

edit: apparently not


AOC


seems like she's headed for house leadership eventually tho
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Postby tgk » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:43 pm

If we need 3 senate flips to get 50/50 (with D vp as tiebreak) most likely states to flip seems CO, AZ, and then Maine and Iowa? I guess we need to prepare for a dougie jones loss too so i guess we'll need another flip as well
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:44 pm

your path to having control of the senate to me seems like:

win AZ, CO, NC, ME, lose AL, win presidency. pretty tough but at least it's mostly a map for offense.
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Postby tgk » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:47 pm

At this point i feel like Iowa is bluer that NC
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Postby big zorb » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:50 pm

joni ernst is 100% getting the boot
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Postby hyperbole man » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:52 pm

def feel like we can knock off bevin
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Postby manierisme » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:52 pm

its a misnomer to say that iowa is bluer or redder than anywhere imo, it's just uniquely swingy

like it had the only county in the us that obama won by 20+ in 2012 and trump won by 20+
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Postby delgriffith » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:52 pm

big zorb wrote:joni ernst is 100% getting the boot

And that's the tea, sis.
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Postby big zorb » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:56 pm

manierisme wrote:its a misnomer to say that iowa is bluer or redder than anywhere imo, it's just uniquely swingy

like it had the only county in the us that obama won by 20+ in 2012 and trump won by 20+


i posted this elsewhere but a lot of iowans earnestly believe the best government is netted by having one term of democrats, then one term of republicans, and repeat
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:56 pm

hyperbole man wrote:def feel like we can knock off bevin


he had a 30/55 approval rating in the Morning Consult October gov ratings so, it seems plausible
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Postby alaska » Fri Nov 30, 2018 12:58 pm

Man
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:00 pm

Iowa had decent results for 2018 congress but Reynolds held on and the democrats couldn't flip the state legislature despite a D+8.7 national environment. I'm not optimistic about its future.
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Postby palmer eldritch » Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:03 pm

Democrats actually lost 3 Iowa state senate seats in 2018!
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Postby big zorb » Fri Nov 30, 2018 1:11 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:Iowa had decent results for 2018 congress but Reynolds held on and the democrats couldn't flip the state legislature despite a D+8.7 national environment. I'm not optimistic about its future.


i think there are good things happening here, honestly, but things are gonna be fucked at the state level w/r/t the state house because the only people who live in those rural districts are old white people who feel they've been abandoned by the world and vote purely out of spite

interestingly a dude i knew at the u of i in 2008 won one of two seats that ensured republicans control the house there. he is a libertarian douchebag.
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Postby joe » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:13 pm

god relying on NC to get senate control seems like quite the death wish
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Postby big zorb » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:14 pm

grassley is 85, too. dude might step down before 2022.
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Postby shark week » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:16 pm

joe wrote:god relying on NC to get senate control seems like quite the death wish


it's gonna take a big upset somewhere

maybe Bullock taking out Daines in Montana or fielding a star candidate to beat Perdue in Georgia
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Postby alaska » Fri Nov 30, 2018 2:18 pm

man it's so sick that my basic human rights are staked on a psychotically broken board game
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