elections 2020 /// schum gang 2021

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Postby yungboi » Tue Oct 29, 2019 6:26 pm

Idk about y'all but I'm ready for some 2019 VA state elections. Looks pretty good to take both the House and Senate this year.
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Tue Oct 29, 2019 7:55 pm

i need to read up on the competitive districts
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:55 am

Taniel's 2019 elections sheet

http://whatsontheballot.com/
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Wed Oct 30, 2019 11:57 am

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Postby yungboi » Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:04 pm

i have feelings SD30 will go R but it will be interesting with Freitas as a write-in candidate
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:09 pm

outside of VA elections and KY-Gov... very interested in the TX HD-28 special and the Seattle city council mess
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:21 pm

I've been trying for 15 minutes to figure out what my municipal election ballot looks like this year to no avail

the county election website doesn't even tell you there's one happening
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:29 pm

I think the answer is that I (personally) don't have one ok (there's a city council election but the city limits are very restrictive here)
Last edited by zajaxi dynamos on Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby big zorb » Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:46 pm

palmer i learned recently that a state senator in iowa gets a $29K salary with a yearly $18K+ per diem

i think i'm gonna take over nate boulton's seat
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Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:48 pm

18k a day seems excessive
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Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:52 pm

The prices at Pizza Ranch must be insane
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Postby tgk » Wed Oct 30, 2019 12:54 pm

pork tenderloin sandwich covered in gold leaf
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Postby big zorb » Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:00 pm

Sorry a per diem that totals $18K!!!!!!
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Postby Ted Pikul » Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:03 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:I've been trying for 15 minutes to figure out what my municipal election ballot looks like this year to no avail

the county election website doesn't even tell you there's one happening


they usually publish it in the local paper
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Wed Oct 30, 2019 1:11 pm

whats a local paper
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Postby shark week » Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:49 am

Jessica Cisneros is speaking at this thing today

Image

i know Cuellar is low-hanging fruit/basically a republican but it's gonna be a big deal for a while every time labor supports a challenger to an established incumbent
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Postby shark week » Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:23 pm

Louisiana runoff early voting day 1 analysis

Record early voting turnout

In recent election cycles, examining the first day early voting numbers has been a real eye opener on multiple occasions: (1) the 2016 Presidential election (where an record 531,555 ultimately early voted), (2) the 2018 “low wattage” (for Louisiana) midterm elections (315,773 early voted), (3) the primary for this year’s statewide elections (386,129 early voted). As of last night, 89,623 voted early – the highest first day early voting turnout EVER (the previous record was the 87,066 who voted on the first day for President in 2016). This 89,623 figure was 16% higher than it was for the primary and 112% higher than it was for the 2015 runoff.

Furthermore, Democrats were the clear beneficiary. While blacks were 25% of the early vote after the first day of primary early voting, they were 31% as of last night. Not only was the 6% increase impressive, but a 31% black electorate after the first day is not a common occurrence: in 17 statewide election cycles from 2008 to 2019, only 5 times have blacks represented that high of a percentage of the early vote. Curiously, Republican turnout remained relatively high as well: 39% of those who early voted were Republican (compared to 42% in the primary).

Louisianians are gradually becoming more comfortable with the idea of voting before Election Day: the first Presidential election where early voting was available was in 2008, and at that time, 15%/292,213 early voted – a record at that time. That record was topped again in 2012 (18%/355,676 early voted), then again in 2016 (26%/531,555 early voted), and in the 2019 primary (28%/386,129 early voted) . And since the 2015 statewide primary, the “new normal” has consistently been above 20% voting early – an average of 24% have early voted in statewide elections between October 2015 and October 2019.

So with turnout higher than in the primary and more than double the 2015 numbers, is this a harbinger of high November 16 turnout ? Given what happened in the primary (where the high initial early voting turnout caused turnout to increase from 39% in 2015 to 46%), JMC now believes this is the case, because the “missing ingredient” in the primary was lower black enthusiasm, which clearly has changed, and that change has – for now – provided an electoral lift for Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards.

https://winwithjmc.com/archives/8830
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Postby shark week » Mon Nov 04, 2019 1:55 am

this thread was pretty interesting. no idea what data this guy is using to inform his STV guesses, especially for would-be Middleman voters

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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Mon Nov 04, 2019 2:55 pm

wow sandwich take the lead
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Postby quilty » Mon Nov 04, 2019 3:41 pm

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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:03 pm

there's a competitive election for governor in a state with 4.5 million people tomorrow

there were two independent polls released
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:05 pm

one of them was by an internet polling startup that says Beshear will win by 20
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Postby tgk » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:05 pm

is this the last election of 2019? or are there some runoffs still to be had
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:05 pm

so if Beshear wins by 20 points, congratulations... Targoz Research???
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:06 pm

tgk wrote:is this the last election of 2019? or are there some runoffs still to be had


LA-Gov is in a few weeks
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Postby the scofflaw » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:11 pm

bevin will be gov (again)
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:15 pm

I'd have it as a Tilt R but maybe only in like a 60/40 sense. there's not much to go on other than it's competitive but the state's lean is hard to overcome even with Bevin's unpopularity.
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Postby the scofflaw » Mon Nov 04, 2019 4:22 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:I'd have it as a Tilt R but maybe only in like a 60/40 sense. there's not much to go on other than it's competitive but the state's lean is hard to overcome even with Bevin's unpopularity.



yeah for sure
beshear is also kind of a lame candidate, his dad is still largely associated with corruption issues...voter turnout always totally blows here (like 30 percent on a good day) and it seems like there's just no enthusiasm for this one - easily the fewest yard signs i can recall in a long while (like, almost none even in lex where there's usually tons of dem signage). would love to be surprised though
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Postby joe » Mon Nov 04, 2019 5:43 pm

gonna be really sad if amazon's insane spending boots Sawant
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Postby zajaxi dynamos » Tue Nov 05, 2019 9:42 am

its election day motherfuckers
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