elections 2020 and also february 2021 now

Health insurance rip off lying FDA big bankers buying
Fake computer crashes dining
Cloning while they're multiplying
Fashion shoots with Beck and Hanson
Courtney Love, and Marilyn Manson
You're all fakes
Run to your mansions
Come around
We'll kick your ass in

Postby Hal Jordan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:21 pm

well that was intense
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Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:26 pm

mcwop23 wrote:palmer taniel asked me to forward this to you



did he really
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Postby shark week » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:28 pm

Feech La Manna wrote:
A more recent example helps illustrate what’s at stake when progressives fail to coalesce behind a single candidate. In the early-September Democratic primary to replace Representative Joe Kennedy in Massachusetts, McElwee and Data for Progress backed the progressive candidate Jesse Mermell, a former aide to Governor Deval Patrick, while other leftists supported Ihssane Leckey, a Democratic Socialist McElwee dismissed as a “poster”—someone who is deeply immersed in the politics of Twitter. Of the two, polls showed that Mermell was much better positioned to win, but Leckey didn’t drop out, and leftists continued to campaign hard for her. On September 1, Mermell lost the primary by just 1 percent to Jake Auchincloss, a former Republican political organizer. “This is exactly why we need to take this seriously,” McElwee told me. The far left “spent the whole campaign bashing Mermell …” he trailed off. “God, I’m gonna be pissed about that forever.” With each loss, though, McElwee hopes that leftists will come closer to understanding the error of their ways—that building coalitions and persuading voters is the only way to win. “Listen to Sean,” he said. “This is the lesson.”


this mf said "Listen to Sean"


Sean can go fuck himself

i didn't read the article but i'm gonna assume they conveniently neglected to mention Leckey was in the race primarying Kennedy before Kennedy announced he was gonna primary and lose to Markey

i don't believe Leckey was a good candidate but if we're gonna coalesce, the left should probably start with the candidate that has the nerve to primary the incumbent
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Postby Frank » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:29 pm

Susan Collins eating shit is gonna be so good
dog diarrhea in my beard
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Postby shark week » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:30 pm

palmer eldritch wrote:
mcwop23 wrote:palmer taniel asked me to forward this to you



did he really


going with AK
Permafrost wrote:The heart wants what the heart wants, and if the heart wants Nebbiolo variants then so be it
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Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:33 pm

TX, AK, KS, SC in that order for me
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Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:34 pm

but theyre like 10-20% possibilities probably
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Postby Hal Jordan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:36 pm

cornyn's been all overt the air in austin. his ad is about passing a bill to end rape kit backlogs. republicans absolutely are not running on their record or the policies they support.
well that was intense
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Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:38 pm

I mean 538 has Biden with a 30% chance of winning TX rn

its not hard to pull someone over the line with polarized voting
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Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:39 pm

the internals you see out of TX house campaigns are wild.
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Postby Ted Pikul » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:43 pm

shark week wrote:
Feech La Manna wrote:
A more recent example helps illustrate what’s at stake when progressives fail to coalesce behind a single candidate. In the early-September Democratic primary to replace Representative Joe Kennedy in Massachusetts, McElwee and Data for Progress backed the progressive candidate Jesse Mermell, a former aide to Governor Deval Patrick, while other leftists supported Ihssane Leckey, a Democratic Socialist McElwee dismissed as a “poster”—someone who is deeply immersed in the politics of Twitter. Of the two, polls showed that Mermell was much better positioned to win, but Leckey didn’t drop out, and leftists continued to campaign hard for her. On September 1, Mermell lost the primary by just 1 percent to Jake Auchincloss, a former Republican political organizer. “This is exactly why we need to take this seriously,” McElwee told me. The far left “spent the whole campaign bashing Mermell …” he trailed off. “God, I’m gonna be pissed about that forever.” With each loss, though, McElwee hopes that leftists will come closer to understanding the error of their ways—that building coalitions and persuading voters is the only way to win. “Listen to Sean,” he said. “This is the lesson.”


this mf said "Listen to Sean"


Sean can go fuck himself

i didn't read the article but i'm gonna assume they conveniently neglected to mention Leckey was in the race primarying Kennedy before Kennedy announced he was gonna primary and lose to Markey

i don't believe Leckey was a good candidate but if we're gonna coalesce, the left should probably start with the candidate that has the nerve to primary the incumbent


i dont really care about this, but 'support the candidate that got in first' isn't necessarily a good strategy either. every district is different and needs its own approach
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Postby Hal Jordan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:44 pm

hegar's starting to drop ads but i've prob seen 3x as many cornyn ads.

same for my house rep. roger williams is everywhere, his opponent doesn't have any presence. and all his ads are about supporting the police.
well that was intense
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Postby shark week » Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:50 pm

Ted Pikul wrote:
shark week wrote:
Sean can go fuck himself

i didn't read the article but i'm gonna assume they conveniently neglected to mention Leckey was in the race primarying Kennedy before Kennedy announced he was gonna primary and lose to Markey

i don't believe Leckey was a good candidate but if we're gonna coalesce, the left should probably start with the candidate that has the nerve to primary the incumbent


i dont really care about this, but 'support the candidate that got in first' isn't necessarily a good strategy either. every district is different and needs its own approach


that's fair but it's ridiculous that he would pin Mermell's loss on Leckey and Twitter leftists

apparently Linos was also a "progressive" in this race and gets no mention from Sean
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Postby hyperbole man » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:03 pm

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Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:05 pm

I mean if you're gonna do the whole bullshit "this kid's instincts are insane" angle I guess it makes sense that it completely neglects to mention he was all in on Warren in the primary

He just sucks and every quote in that piece reinforces the idea that he's a jackass self-promoter and an egomaniac
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Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:05 pm

Also the people who keep writing these stupid puff pieces are clearly his buddies
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Postby hideout » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:22 pm

all i know is that i will not stand for this anti-poster discrimination coming from him
postin' makes me feel good
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Postby struttin' evil mushroom » Wed Sep 16, 2020 2:55 pm

mcelwee is a charlatan but the idea that you can win elections without compromises has always been wrong, on a macro level. of course every district is different, every race is different, there are deep-blue districts that are gonna go for the Squad and we need to contest every single one of them, etc. -- but there is just very little political science suggesting that, all things being equal, you're going to turn out a bunch of shy leftists by running on a loud and proud left platform

i see that as the start of a conversation we need to be having with ourselves: if you accept that that's the case, what's the value of left electioneering? are we spending too much time dicking around in primaries and not enough time organizing locally and building up grassroots support for change? are we focusing on the wrong level (it's harder to win at the presidential/state level than downballot, where many districts are pretty fucking blue and where organizing is more meaningful)? what left issues ARE popular (they exist) and how do we run on them? do we give a shit about losing if we can use the enormous earned media around elections to build coalitions and support for our issues? etc. etc. it's accepting what appears to be true and figuring out how we organize around it

for people like mcelwee, it's the end of a conversation, because election consultants' theory of change is "win elections," and any good that happens outside of that narrow framework is unimportant

and if i'm being blunt, for a lot of people on the left it's also the end of the conversation because the idea that the way the Democrats win is by running more vocal leftists is axiomatic and unexamined. i almost made a thread about this stuff because it's one of the reasons i don't really want to post in these threads (among others) and then realized i didn't want to deal with a bunch of aggro dudes calling me a squish but like 3 people post here and it's a thing i've been thinking and reading about a lot, so whatever
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Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:01 pm

for example do this

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Postby struttin' evil mushroom » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:03 pm

yeah
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Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:09 pm

I don't have a problem with any of that, I just really hate Sean McElwee
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Postby palmer eldritch » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:11 pm

i hate sean mcelwee for being annoying and building a good polling operation
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Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:12 pm

fair
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Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:13 pm

got a hunch that Sean is taking credit for a lot of other people's work there!
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Postby mcwop23 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:13 pm

Taniel said thanks Palmer
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Postby pretty yeoman » Wed Sep 16, 2020 3:17 pm

struttin' evil mushroom wrote:yeah


I was reading this the other day and your longer post up there brought it to mind again:

yeah jacobin but Karp seems like a relatively thorough and thoughtful writer
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Postby struttin' evil mushroom » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:13 pm

that's a good one, ty. i could write literal pages on this kinda stuff

the biggest thing that seems missing from the electoral analysis of the piece is the provenance of what Karp calls the 'Halliburton Democrats' -- why they are voting Democratic. not to oversimplify but the basic idea is these are educated people who wouldn't mind a tax cut but who are also repulsed by trump's trumpiness, right? it's a function of the fact that more and more the parties are stratifying along educational lines as much as any other, as the dems grow "cosmopolitan" and the Rs, well, don't. and i'm not sure what to do about that, because it means the working class (don't want fall into the traps of assuming working class =/= uneducated here, but i'm talking about averages/the macro picture) is voting more and more for Republicans, even if they agree with the left on economic issues. the piece gets at this somewhat when it discusses bernie's underperformance among white rural voters vs. '16; it correctly says 'he's not hillary' was a huge part of the '16 success, and i think trump's incumbency/'electability' played a bit of a role as the piece also argues, but it doesn't seem to consider the idea that bernie moving a bit further left on cultural issues (guns, abortion, race: or, at least, seeming more comfortable talking about them), while unequivocally the moral thing to do, very likely hurt him among those voters

i'm glad the piece brought up mcelwee too because this is the heart of the thing -- of COURSE he thinks the natural home for the left is to train educated liberals to be class traitors. he himself is an educated liberal who believes himself to be a class traitor! (and frankly so are a lot of us, i certainly am, and i am not trying to throw stones from glass houses)

and the thing is, in the short term, he's right. those are the people who vote. there isn't a big enough constituency for socialism right now -- there's barely a big enough constituency for socdem -- and people who vote are far likelier (making this up, but the # is high!) to vote again than a new disaffected working class person is to show up for the first time.

but ... to what end? in the long term all you've done is make a party full of rich educated white people that are going to make moderate change

but then you look at that more deeply, and something like 3/4 of young people who didn't vote in 2016 say they're moderate or conservative. and there is a lot of political science suggesting that nonvoters tend to get turned off if they see someone as 'ideological' (probably a reason bernie lost ground between '16 and '20 -- he had more of that outsider sheen then). like, there is a ceiling that needs to get broken through, and we're a long way from breaking through. (side note: i've seen it suggested -- Vox types love this kind of shit -- that you can still have a leftist platform and run more like a centrist, but frankly i haven't seen a ton of good research here, and also it seems inimical to democracy which is a long-term problem for a million different reasons. not every popular thing is good. not every good thing is popular. EVERYONE should run on the popular stuff, but the only way unpopular stuff becomes popular is by talking about it.)

i try not to think about this TOO much because ultimately i think you can make gains at the local level, where elected officials are more responsive to the reality on the ground, and where many districts are ripe for the taking. it almost feels like, why worry about the broader picture when there is work to be done? but it's honestly a pretty dispiriting state of affairs and the deeper i dive into this the less broadly i share others' optimism others have that a better world is possible through electoral politics anytime soon
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Postby ten chimneys » Wed Sep 16, 2020 6:50 pm

I would be skeptical of anyone's self-identified political philosophy if they simultaneously dislike "ideological" people. this just means the person has no political theory and instead has a hodge-podge of contradictory beliefs and opinions. In any case I sincerely believe the answer to the lumpenproletariat issue in the USA is decades of leftist propaganda. The damage conservative talk radio has done to politics in this country cannot be overstated.
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Postby Feech La Manna » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:00 pm



I see this dude is still a massive dickhead
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Postby struttin' evil mushroom » Wed Sep 16, 2020 8:02 pm

garbiel wrote:I would be skeptical of anyone's self-identified political philosophy if they simultaneously dislike "ideological" people. this just means the person has no political theory and instead has a hodge-podge of contradictory beliefs and opinions.


well, yes

the problem, vis-a-vis electoralism, is: this is most people
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