Virgin Werewolf (#16): WOLVES WIN

[milano boy]

So I think carrots spread sheet play was thrown out there after their really odd vote that got us all thinking. Carrot was hardly in the spotlight at all until the strange vote, outside of the fact that they had been extremely quiet. Past ww wolf winners have maintained the be silent and off hands strategy.

I say carrot is doing the shadieat stuff right now and I'm convinced they are a wolf

[bill]

i haven't chatted to ted much on slack

but he seems to be trying to divert attention away from carrot in this conv i had with him

i thought the spread sheet thing was a bit strange too

and none of carrot's voting makes any sense

[whatabout tim]

You guys are putting a lot of trust in metersk. He can blackmail any of you. Anyone who doesn't vote to kill me is going to become a target tomorrow. You let him take charge, and if metersk isn't good the village is already fucked.

RIP Ted and tim, victims of metersk. Efreet and carrot are probably his next targets.

oOoOoOo oOoOoOo

[milano boy]

Carrot! What do you have to say for yourself?

[Luke]

compatibility mode has been found dead.

he was a villager

[milano boy]

Interesting pick, wolfies.

[Luke]

The village stands at 2 Werewolves, 2 Villagers, a Bodyguard, and a Hunter.

[carrot]

well a few thoughts:

- I definitely realize that abstaining from a vote was a risky move that would put me in the spotlight. I was hedging that Ted was going to be innocent... and realize how bad it makes me look if he turned out to be a minion or a wolf. So I totally understand why people are suspicious of me.

- I do find it interesting that I was criticized for joining the bandwagon vote for TIm, and also criticized for not joining the bandwagon vote for Ted. Granted, I still understand how the latter is bad (see above), but it's still interesting to me nonetheless.

- The spreadsheet was mainly for my sake. I'm a visual person and it's best for me to just lay things out like that. I thought I should share it.

- And this is a throwaway point, but I guess it should be mentioned: I'm just an innocent villager who hasn't been playing well. I tried some risky moves to get some reactions. If we accept what metersk said is true:

Past ww wolf winners have maintained the be silent and off hands strategy.

I would not be a very good wolf (and well I'm not a good villager either, but oh well). All of my actions so far have been transparent, and I've admitted them as such.

Also I find that point by metersk to be interesting, given how hands on they have been this game.

Anyway, just some observations. I understand I look suspicious and am willing to do whatever to clear my name and get everyone pointed in the right direction... I'm sure the wolves love that I have taken the spotlight off them.

[milano boy]

Here's my take on the compat kill. I think the reason I was not killed was because the wolves think I'm the hunter and I would have obvious killed carrot.

[vivian darko]

Sorry for being so inactive on here lately, yall--have been very busy the past couple days. I think this might be my last werewolf game for now, cause the necessary time investment is more than I expected. I agree with metersk that carrot's actions have been very suspicious, especially coupled with Ted Pikul's apparent misdirection. I was suspicious of the apparent hunt for good specials going on behind the scenes but compatibility mode's death has allayed my suspicions a little there, and am going to trust metersk for now.

[millar]

Sorry for being so inactive on here lately, yall--have been very busy the past couple days. I think this might be my last werewolf game for now, cause the necessary time investment is more than I expected. I agree with metersk that carrot's actions have been very suspicious, especially coupled with Ted Pikul's apparent misdirection. I was suspicious of the apparent hunt for good specials going on behind the scenes but compatibility mode's death has allayed my suspicions a little there, and am going to trust metersk for now.

how does ted pikul's misdirection point towards carrot? that screenshot doesn't look like very compelling evidence to me.

otoh, his nominating metersk seems very suspicious. does anybody else think ted's voting history is a sensible thing to pursue?

[vivian darko]

I will say, in carrot's defense, that conspicuously abstaining from voting for the minion is weird and maybe a little obvious for a wolf

[millar]

i don't think the wolves know who the minion is. luke?

[vivian darko]

If the wolves didn't think Ted was the minion then carrot's abstention makes even less sense

Edit: assuming carrot is a wolf

[milano boy]

i mean they don't know from the get go, but could have had very strong guesses.

[Luke]

i don't think the wolves know who the minion is. luke?

They do not know, and the minion is prevented from revealing their identity to them.

[bill]

i won't be round much today, doing moving house things all day

[compatibility mode]

OoOoOoOoOoOI'm kickin' it with pugsly up here in heaven. I hope I am avenged!OoOoOoOoOoO

[Ted Pikul]

OoOoOoOoOoO EeEeEeEeEe OoOoOoOoOoO I look just like Buddy Holly OoOoOoOoOoO

[compatibility mode]

OoOoOoOoOoO Now that I am dead, I can concentrate on other things, it is for the best. OoOoOoOoOoO

[millar]

okay, gonna post a summary of the way that people appeared to reach a decision to vote for ted to see what we can make of it.* at least one werewolf voted for ted to die. we know that ted was the minion, and that the minion technically can't reveal himself, so there are two possibilities: the werewolves didn't realise ted was the minion, and voted to kill believing he was a villager; or they knew he was the minion, but saw his fate was inevitable and decided to vote with the crowd in order to divert suspicion. the question is - if it is the latter - how would a werewolf attempt to disguise their vote?

vivian darkbloom was the first to vote for ted. claiming to have to spend their vote early, vivian goes for ted on account of the slack screenshots and the accusations of tim (who we now know to be a villager). it seems unlikely that a werewolf would cast a vote for ted at this point if they had any suspicion of him being the minion.
compatibility mode (now dead; definitely a villager) voted ted next. they placed their trust again on slack messages, despite similar convictions leading to tim's death. an erratic vote, but an innocent one.
bill voted next. interestingly, her post is almost entirely focussed on efreet, who we've not discussed lately (and who has barely posted in the thread). bill gives no clear reason to vote ted beyond "i think Ted Pikul is definitely suspicious as all hell". ted's fate wasn't sealed at this point, but all votes cast had been for him and we'd been suspicious the previous round, so it may have seemed like a good sacrifice for a wolf.

now a brief intermission, because ted votes for metersk. i am going to analyse that post in a separate post, because i think it's really interesting. i'll come back to it.

metersk then responds in kind with a big post accusing ted, freely admitting some shady dealing and then strangely asking the hunter and bodyguard to reveal themselves. this was a pretty suspicious play, and he's since admitted to me that he was just hoping to extract some info. i'd be surprised if anyone actually took the bait, since it was a very transparent move. his vote for ted isn't especially suspicious unless you believe the two of them were colluding in an extremely long game. it would be very impressive if they have pulled that off.
efreet then jumps in with nothing more than "Gotta see this through. ted pikul". this is a very suspicious vote. no supporting evidence, nothing else; clearly efreet believes ted is dying and jumps on board. i need to see efreet clearly defend their approach with this one before i can be convinced of their innocence.
carrot then abstains. similar to efreet above, i think this is a suspicious vote because of the timing - it is clear ted is going to die, and perhaps carrot realises that voting will be seen as a bandwagon move akin to efreet's.
then i, millar, cast the final vote. given what i've said above you might be rightly suspicious of this (tho all previous votes were overnight during my timezone). i won't analyse my own post - though you're welcome to do so - but i will say i had previously suspected + voted ted the night before when things were still in the balance, and you guys still opted to lynch tim. i have not contributed to the single death of an innocent thus far.

what does all this amount to? i'd say efreet and carrot come out of this looking pretty bad to me - and maybe also the quiet bill murray, who votes decisively for ted but with no justification. i will combine this analysis with a subsequent interpretation of ted's accusation of metersk before explaining who i think we should vote for next.

*of course, it may be that the decision to vote for ted on the part of each of us was not made in this order, but i can only really go on the order posted, as those are the definitive votes.

[millar]

You guys are making a big mistake here.Metersk is playing a dangerous game. He manipulated tim against me, tim and me against carrot, and efreet against me. That's four villagers he's used, and what do we have to show for it? Just some dead villagers.

i think this post is interesting. possibly i'm reading too much between the lines - tell me what you guys think:

ted at this point is close to death (he has received 3 votes plus 2 who voted for him in the previous round are still yet to vote) but it is not certain, so he might still think there is a chance that, as the minion, he could redirect our attention either a) away from the wolves or b) towards another villager.

his long-standing enmity with metersk is well known, but his comments about carrot and efreet are interesting here - he clearly lumps them in with tim (the dead villager) as "four villagers", including himself. it seems to be that in one move ted attempts to cast suspicion on metersk whilst very specifically drawing it away from carrot and efreet.

could this be a triple bluff? maybe. but i'm pretty sure one of those two is a wolf. let's weigh it up, but barring new evidence coming to light, my vote will be for one of them. i'm leaning towards efreet but that's more instinct than based on anything. i could yet be swayed.

[milano boy]

i vote to lynch Carrot

[Luke]

That's one vote for carrot, with a little north of 3 and a half hours to go.

[vivian darko]

I'm voting for carrot as well. I still think it's weird that a wolf would do such a conspicuous play like yesterday's at this point in the game, but I feel less confident about any of the other potential wolves.

[Luke]

Hour and a half, two votes for carrot.

[carrot]

Put me in a stew if you have to

I vote for Metersk

[millar]

not sure if I've made the deadline but I'm gonna go efreet

just too quiet and erratic for me, and no attempt to explain their actions.

[Luke]

15 minutes remaining.

2 - carrot
1 - metersk
1 - efreet

[Luke]

bill and efreet have to speak up.